Analysts Predict $4.5 Billion Quarterly Hit as Nvidia Faces China Market Lockout

Financial analysts are forecasting severe revenue impacts for Nvidia as new U.S. export restrictions effectively eliminate the company’s access to Chinese markets. Wedbush analysts project quarterly losses ranging from $3 billion to $4.5 billion, while Susquehanna estimates that the restrictions have already cost the company approximately $1 billion in sales during just the final three weeks of the April quarter.
The financial implications extend beyond immediate revenue losses, with significant impacts expected on Nvidia’s profit margins. Adjusted gross margins are projected to decline by more than 11 percentage points to 67.7%, primarily due to write-downs associated with restricted H20 chip sales. Some estimates suggest margin compression could reach 12.5%, representing one of the most substantial quarterly adjustments in the company’s recent history.
Despite these near-term challenges, first-quarter revenue is still expected to demonstrate strong growth, with analysts projecting a 66.2% increase to $43.28 billion. This growth reflects continued demand from other global markets and major cloud service providers who are maintaining their AI infrastructure investments. However, the company faces the ongoing challenge of proving it can sustain this growth trajectory without access to what CEO Jensen Huang has characterized as a $50 billion annual market opportunity in China.